Fewer Births in a Bad Economy

American birth rates have fallen noticeably in the last few years, a trend that seems to be tied to the poor economy, according to a new analysis from the Pew Research Center.

There were a record number of births just as the United States was falling into recession in 2007, when 4,316,233 babies were born. Since then, the number of births has fallen, with provisional data provided by Pew indicating that births totaled about 4,007,000 last year.

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

As you can see from the chart above, the birth rate — that is, the number of births per thousand women ages 15 to 44 — uncannily tracked declining incomes since the recession began. The connection between economic conditions and birth rates also generally held true at the state level.

Dollars to doughnuts.

States experiencing the largest economic declines in 2007 and 2008, like Florida, were most likely to experience relatively large fertility declines from 2008 to 2009, the analysis finds. States with relatively minor economic declines on the other hand were likely to experience relatively small decreases in the birth rate.

In fact, North Dakota, which had one of the country’s lowest unemployment rates in 2008 (3.1 percent) was the only state to see its birth rate increase from 2008 to 2009 (by 0.7 percent).

Birth rate changes varied by demographic group, with Hispanics having the biggest fertility decline from 2008 to 2009 of 5.9 percent. Whites, by contrast, had a 1.6 percent drop in their birth rate. Hispanics still have much higher fertility rates than non-Hispanics, but their fertility rate of 93.3 births per 1,000 women of child-bearing age was at its lowest rate in a decade.

Birth rates fell mostly among younger women and actually rose among older women. That may indicate that cultural factors are at play here as well, and that many people are merely delaying having children as opposed to opting out of parenthood (or having additional children) permanently.

“The recession is more strongly associated with fertility declines among younger women, who presumably have the luxury of postponing fertility until better economic times prevail,” the report says, citing survey data Pew has collected separately. “Conversely, older women are less likely to say that they have postponed fertility due to economic declines. They are the only age group that has shown consistent, if not rising, fertility in recent years.”

The decline in housing prices in particular may have had a strong effect on families’ decisions to have children. A new working paper by economists at the University of Maryland finds that short-term decreases in house prices typically lead to an decline in births among people who own their own homes, and an increase in births among people who don’t.