Monday, October 31, 2011

Kardashianomics

There are lots of reasons why marriage can be a good financial investment, including that marriage correlates with higher lifetime earnings. But of course for one (soon to be former) celebrity couple — Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries — the payoff is much quicker, without that whole till-death-do-we-part commitment.

Ms. Kardashian, a reality TV persona, and Kris Humphries, a New Jersey Nets basketball player, were paid $17.9 million for media coverage and other promotional events related to their Aug. 20, 2011 wedding. Per The New York Post, these payments included:

* $15 million for four-hour, two-part wedding special on E!

* $2.5 million for exclusive photos with People magazine
* $300,000 for an exclusive engagement announcement with People
* $100,000 for exclusive rights to a bridal shower with Britain’s OK! mag
* $50,000 to have a bachelorette party at Tao in Las Vegas

And that’s not even including the in-kind payments they received, including $400,000 worth of Perrier Jouet Champagne and three $20,000 Vera Wang gowns.

Alas, on Monday the newlyweds announced their decision to divorce, 72 days after the wedding. As my colleague Don Van Natta Jr. points out, that comes to $10,358.80 per hour (or $5,179.40 each if split evenly, though I haven’t see the prenup).

Not a bad business to be in. I’m guessing that selling the publicity rights to the divorce hearings might be even more lucrative.

Rich Get Biggest Break in Perry Tax Plan, Study Finds

CATHERINE RAMPELL
CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

Gov. Rick Perry’s proposal for an opt-in flat tax would primarily benefit the wealthiest Americans, according to a new analysis from the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research organization. Compared with current tax policy, the plan would most likely reduce federal tax revenue by $570 billion, or about 15 percent.

Dollars to doughnuts.

The plan, released last week as part of Mr. Perry’s campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, allows taxpayers to calculate their personal income taxes under the existing tax code, which is progressive. But it also allows taxpayers to instead have their income taxed at a flat 20 percent rate. In this alternative system, long-term capital gains, qualified dividends and Social Security benefits would not be taxed, and only a handful of deductions would be allowed. Once a household chooses the new system, it cannot switch back.

Because no one would be forced to use the alternate system, Mr. Perry has said, no one would have to pay higher taxes (at least initially; presumably if a family’s income changes a few years after entering the plan, it may no longer be advantageous). Even so, the greatest beneficiaries of the flat-tax option — that is, the households that would be most likely to switch to this system — are far and away the highest earners:

Of all households in the bottom quintile of the tax distribution, only 18.9 percent would pay less in taxes under the Perry plan.

Meanwhile, 83.3 percent of households in the top quintile would get a tax cut. Closer inspection shows that almost every household in the top 1 percent would be offered a tax cut.

The size of the typical tax cut is also much larger for the richest households, both in raw numbers and as a share of that household’s income. For households in the top 0.1 percent, for example, after-tax income would rise by 27.4 percent. If every American household, however, chose the flat-tax system, after-tax incomes across the country would increase by an average of just 5.3 percent.

In addition to changes to individual income taxes, the Perry plan would also reduce the corporate income tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent; allow companies to expense all investment purchases immediately; make any income that American companies earn abroad exempt from United States federal taxes; and repeal the federal estate taxes and various taxes contained in the Affordable Care Act.

The Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, has also created tables showing tax cuts by dollar income (as opposed to percentile) and how families with different marital structures and varying numbers of children would most likely be affected.

Dow drops 2.3% for the day, gains 9.5% in October

Nysefloor
A sell-off on Monday dented stocks' big advance for October, as worries about Europe's debt crisis flared again and the failure of brokerage MF Global Holdings Inc. rattled Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average slumped 276.10 points, or 2.3%, to close at 11,955.01, the largest one-day drop in four weeks.

For October overall the Dow rallied 1,042 points, or 9.5%, the biggest monthly gain since October 2002.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 31.79 points, or 2.5%, to 1,253.30 on Monday. The S&P jumped 10.8% for the month, its best gain in nearly two decades, as recession worries faded.

Trading volume was relatively moderate Monday, suggesting there was no mad rush for the exits, though selling accelerated near the closing bell.

Many analysts had warned at the end of last week that the market was overdue for a pullback after soaring for most of October. In Wall Street parlance, stocks were “overbought.”

Monday’s headlines brought good excuses to sell. Italian government bond yields rose, raising fresh doubts about Europe's latest plan to solve its debt crisis.

When European leaders on Thursday announced their new strategy to end the debt nightmare, a key to the plan was to make investors feel confident about buying Italian bonds, thereby driving interest rates down. Instead, yields are rising.

Most European stock markets slid between 2.8% and 3.8% on Monday, after rocketing in the aftermath of the rescue-plan announcement.

MF Global’s failure, though not a total surprise, spooked investors by resurrecting memories of the collapse of Lehman Bros. in September 2008.

Some investors and traders rushed into the usual havens: U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar. The yield on the 10-year T-note dived to 2.11% from 2.32% on Friday. The dollar rallied against most currencies, helped in part by Japan’s decision to try to beat back the yen from all-time highs.

On Wall Street, the bulls know they have history on their side in the near term -- if you believe that the U.S. economy will keep growing, Europe won’t implode and no other major disaster looms: Since 1950, November and December have been the stock market’s best two-month period of the year, on average, as investors often look ahead to the new year with optimism.

RELATED:

Rising Italian bond yields cast doubt on Europe rescue plan

MF Global fails, first U.S. casualty of Europe debt crisis

EU announces new plan to tackle debt crisis

-- Tom Petruno

Photo: The New York Stock Exchange floor on Monday. Credit: Brendan McDermid / Reuters

Dollar surges as global fears rise and Japan tries to beat down yen

Yen
The dollar is back to playing the strongman of world currencies -- a bad sign for markets if it continues.

The buck soared Monday against other major and minor currencies as Japan intervened to halt the yen’s surge and as new worries about Europe fueled a classic rush for safety.

Markets also were on edge after securities firm MF Global filed for bankruptcy, a casualty of Europe’s financial crisis.

The DXY index of the dollar’s value against six other major currencies jumped almost 2% to 76.54, its biggest one-day move this year. But the gain just pushed the index back to where it was Oct. 20.

The dollar surged in September as Europe seemed closer to a meltdown and as global recession fears mounted. In October the buck reversed course as stock markets rallied and investors began to feel more comfortable taking risks in other currencies.

On Monday, safety considerations once again trumped everything else. The euro tumbled 2.2% to $1.383 by 1 p.m. PDT as rising Italian bond yields cast fresh doubt on Europe's financial rescue plan.

The dollar’s biggest move was against the yen, which had hit a record high against the greenback Friday, posing an ever-rising threat to Japan’s export economy.

That finally pushed the Japanese government into action Monday, selling yen and buying dollars in the open market. The dollar jumped 3.1%, to 78.18 yen from 75.82 on Friday. But the U.S. currency still is down against the yen year to date. It was at 81.12 yen at the end of 2010.

"We started currency intervention this morning in order to take every measure against speculative and disorderly moves and to prevent risks to the Japanese economy from materializing," Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told parliament.

In the struggling global economy every country prefers a weak currency because everyone wants to export their way back to health.

It’s not a coincidence that U.S. stocks plunged in September as the dollar shot higher. Some of the worst-performing shares in September were those of U.S. exporters such as Boeing and Caterpillar, which potentially have a lot to lose if a rising dollar makes their products more expensive overseas.

On Monday Boeing and Caterpillar helped lead the Dow Jones industrial average’s slide. The Dow fell 276.10 points, or 2.3%, to close at 11,955.01. Boeing fell 3.3% and Caterpillar lost 2.4%.

RELATED:

Stocks slump as doubts grow about Europe rescue plan

MF Global fails, first U.S. casualty of Europe debt crisis

-- Tom Petruno

Photo: A currency trader in Tokyo on Monday. Credit: Tomohiro Ohsumi / Bloomberg News

Boeing to establish center in Florida for new spaceship program

Boeing

Aerospace giant Boeing Co. announced plans to establish a headquarters for its new spaceship program at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla.

The Chicago company is in the process of developing a seven-person spaceship, dubbed the Crew Space Transportation-100, for the job of ferrying astronauts to and from the International Space Station now that the space shuttle program is over.

Boeing will consolidate the program’s engineering and manufacturing operations, which are now spread across the country in space-centric cities like Huntington Beach, Houston and Huntsville, Ala. Boeing’s decision is expected to bring back high-paying aerospace jobs to the nation’s “space coast,” near Cape Canaveral, which lost thousands of jobs when the shuttle program was retired this year.

"We selected Florida due to the cost benefits achieved with a consolidated operation, the skilled local workforce and proximity to our NASA customer,” John Mulholland, Boeing’s program manager of commercial programs, said in a statement.

Boeing estimated that the workforce at Kennedy Space Center will ramp up to 550 local jobs by December 2015. Although that's a relatively small number compared with the tens of thousands employed during the shuttle program, the announcement was heralded by state officials.

"We are extremely pleased that Boeing will locate its commercial crew headquarters here in Florida," said Frank DiBello, president of Space Florida, the state’s aerospace economic development agency. "This positions our state well for future growth and a leadership role in NASA's next-generation human space exploration initiatives. It is also a key factor in ensuring Florida's space-related economy continues to thrive after shuttle retirement."

In the coming years, NASA plans to rely on private businesses for low–orbit space missions such as carrying cargo to the space station. The space agency hopes that one day the companies will be able to take astronauts into space as well.

Modern-day industrialists have pounced on this opportunity, developing rockets and space ships to assume the responsibilities.

Boeing's contender to fill the role is an Apollo-like space capsule. Locally, engineers in Huntington Beach are developing the capsule's pressure vessel, base heat shield and autonomous docking systems.

RELATED:

Boeing cuts 100 workers in Huntington Beach

NASA awards millions to four firms to privately develop rockets and spacecraft

The space shuttle's Southland legacy

-- W.J. Hennigan

twitter.com/wjhenn

Image: An artist's rendering of Boeing's Crew Space Transportation-100. Composed of a crew module and a service module, the capsule could carry a crew of seven and would be used to support the International Space Station. Credit: Boeing

Honda will slash production because of new parts shortage

 

Honda will cut production of cars at its North American factories because of parts shortage caused by flooding in Thailand.

Just as Honda was recovering from a production disruption and inventory shortage caused by the Japanese earthquake, it has been hit with another natural disaster –- flooding in Thailand that is causing a parts shortage.

Honda says it will slash production at its U.S. factories by half through Nov. 10 and shutter its factories for a day on Nov. 11. It also has cut all overtime production for November.

About 87% of the Honda and Acura automobiles that the automaker sells in the U.S. are assembled here.

Most of the parts come from North American suppliers, but Honda said it also buys “a few critical electronic parts” from Thailand and other regions of the world.

Honda said it is working with suppliers in Thailand and elsewhere in its network to resume production of the parts it needs for its North American factories.

Honda said it will try to help out its U.S. factory workers by counting any “non-production days” as “no pay, no penalty” days. That means Honda employees can report to work, use a vacation day, or take the day off without compensation or penalty.

Honda’s U.S. sales have slid 6% to just under 860,000 vehicles so far this year. It’s share of the U.S. market has slid to 9% from 10.6%.  A portion of the decline has come from the shortage of vehicles it had available for sale caused by the parts shortages from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in March.

Meanwhile, Honda said that its net profit for its fiscal second quarter ending in September fell 56% to 60.4 billion yen ($788 million.) Revenue slid 16% to 1.885 trillion yen ($24.6 billion.)

RELATED:

European brands have reliability woes

Ford tumbles in Consumer Reports reliability ratings

Detroit automakers still struggle to win California sales

-- Jerry Hirsch

Twitter.com/LATimesJerry

Photo: 2012 Honda Civic. Credit: Honda Motor Co. 

Greece must vote no to the bailout terms


Eurozone policymakers will view with horror George Papandreou's decision to hold a referendum on the Greek bailout package. Less than a week after agreeing a "comprehensive" deal to resolve Europe's sovereign debt crisis, the whole thing already seems to be coming apart at the seams. The Greek prime minister's commitment to a plebiscite introduces a further element of extreme uncertainty.


But for everyone, it could also be a blessing in disguise, for a vote on the bailout package would also in effect be a vote on continued membership of the euro. If it went against Mr Papandreou, his government would fall, and given that Greece could no longer deliver on the conditions attached to the bailout, public money to pay wages, pensions and bills would soon run out. The country would descend into chaos.


To restore order, whoever stepped into the ensuing vacuum would have to impose capital controls and leave the euro. It would be a cataclysmic economic event, but very probably better than the death by a thousand cuts that awaits if Greece agrees the bailout. The sudden death of a no vote is what Mr Papandreou will use as his chief weapon in presenting the case for acceptance of the bailout terms. But it is by no means clear he is going to win.


Things are about to get really interesting.



Consumer Confidential: Scary candy sales, be safe, Black Friday

Here's your mad-dogs-and-Englishmen Monday roundup of consumer news from around the Web:

-- So how much candy will be doled out tonight for Halloween? The answer is $2.3 billion worth, according to the National Confectioners Assn. That's up about 1% from last year. The Census Bureau says the average American consumes about 25 pounds of candy every year. Some other fun facts: There are an estimated 41 million potential trick-or-treaters in 2010 -- children ages 5 to 14 -- across the country. The average jack-o'-lantern bucket holds about 250 pieces of candy, amounting to about 9,000 calories and about three pounds of sugar. Most U.S. children consume between 3,500 and 7,000 calories from candy on Halloween. Finally, candy companies produced about 35 million pounds of candy corn this year. That's a truly scary figure.

-- How to make the holiday safer? Here's some advice from the experts at the Food and Drug Administration and the Consumer Product Safety Commission: Choose flame-resistant costumes. Homemade costumes should be made out of flame-resistant fabrics, like polyester or nylon. Wear bright colors or costumes with reflectors to ensure being visible in the dark. Also, to avoid tripping, make sure costumes aren't too long. Avoid masks -- they can make it more difficult to see properly. Replace them with makeup and hats. Test makeup. Put a small amount of costume makeup on one arm about two days before dressing up.

-- Black Friday comes earlier and earlier. Macy's is planning its earliest start ever to the holiday shopping season by opening many of its U.S stores at midnight on Thanksgiving night. Target announced a similar move last week, setting the stage for what is likely to be a competitive holiday season for U.S. store chains. The National Retail Federation says U.S. retail sales should rise 2.8% in November and December, excluding cars, gas and restaurants. Store hours can vary by chain and by location, but last year most chains opened their doors at 3 a.m. or 4 a.m. on the day after Thanksgiving.

-- David Lazarus

Stocks slump as rising Italian yields cast doubt on Europe rescue

Silvio
Another jump in yields on Italian government bond is raising fresh doubts about Europe's latest plan to solve its debt crisis, and hammering markets worldwide.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down about 165 points, or 1.4%, to 12,064 at 11:40 a.m. PDT, after surging 3.6% last week.    

Most European stock markets fell 2% to 4% on Monday after soaring last week. The euro tumbled 1.4% to $1.394.

The annualized yield on Italy’s 10-year government bond rose Monday to 6.09%, the highest level since early August, up from 6.02% on Friday. The yield on two-year Italian bonds surged to 4.99%, up from 4.75% on Friday and the highest rate since 2008.

Markets no longer are focusing on Greece, which everyone knows is broke. When European leaders on Thursday announced their new plan to end the debt nightmare, a key to the strategy was halting the "contagion" before it engulfed Italy, the world’s third-largest bond market.

If global investors begin to think that Italy can’t repay its debts, the crisis could become a cataclysm.

A key element of the plan is the expansion of Europe’s $600-billion rescue fund for member states and banks. The focus is on boosting the firepower of the fund, known as the European Financial Stability Facility, to $1.4 trillion by leveraging it.

The fund is expected to eventually guarantee bonds issued by deeply indebted countries, particularly Italy. The goal: Bring down interest rates on those securities to levels the countries can afford by making investors more confident about buying them.

But the continuing rise in Italian bond yields shows that many investors and traders doubt the plan will work — or they believe the Europeans will drag their feet implementing it. Although the broad framework of the rescue was announced Thursday, many of the details were still to be filled in.

Meanwhile, Italy’s political crisis is deepening, as calls mount for embattled Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to resign. Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, chairman of carmaker Ferrari, wrote in a letter to the newspaper La Repubblica that Italy needed a new government to take much bolder action to rein in spending and revive the economy.

"There is not a minute to lose. The savings of Italian people, social cohesion and Italy's membership of the euro are all at risk," he said.

RELATED:

EU announces new plan to tackle debt crisis

Italy pledges reforms as part of debt-crisis plan

Will the rescue plan work? Watch European bond yields

— Tom Petruno

twitter.com/tpetruno

Photo: Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Credit: Remo Casilli / Reuters

Airline traffic worldwide up nearly 6% in September

Delayed passengers

Airline passenger traffic jumped nearly 6% in September over the same month last year but industry leaders worry that future numbers won't be as positive.

The International Air Transport Assn., the trade group for the world's largest airlines, reported the September increase but said economic uncertainty in Europe and proposed tax increases in the U.S. could jeopardize future growth and profits.

While passenger traffic increased 5.6% in September, air freight traffic dropped 2.7% in the same month, marking the fifth straight decline, according to the trade group.

The trade group attributed most of the increase in global passenger traffic to growth in emerging markets, such as Latin America, where demand jumped 10.6%, according to the trade group. A weak euro may have prompted more travel into Europe, sparking a 9.2% increase in traffic among European-based airlines, according to the group.

In North America, demand increased only 1.2% in September, compared with the same month last year, the association said.

IATA's director general, Tony Tyler, said economic uncertainty and a proposal by the Obama administration to increase taxes on airlines could cut into growth and future airline profits.

"September's strength in passenger demand was a pleasant surprise," Tyler said. "We are still expecting a general weakening in passenger traffic as we head toward the year-end."

Related:

International travel to the U.S. expected to boom

Airline industry continues to hire for now

Christmas travel spending to increase, survey says

--Hugo Martin

Photo: Passengers wait for flights at Los Angeles International Airport. Credit: Los Angeles Times.

Stocks slump as Italian bond yields rise, casting doubt on Europe rescue

Silvio
Another jump in Italian government bond yields is raising fresh doubts about Europe’s latest plan to solve its debt crisis, and hammering markets worldwide.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 140 points, or 1.1%, to 12,091 at about 11 a.m. PDT, after surging 3.6% last week.

Most European stock markets were down between 2% and 4% after soaring last week. The euro tumbled 1.4% to $1.394.

The annualized yield on Italy’s 10-year government bond rose to 6.09% Monday, up from 6.02% on Friday and the highest since early August. Two-year Italian bond yields surged to 4.99% from 4.75% on Friday and the highest since 2008.

Markets no longer are focusing on Greece, which everyone knows is broke. When European leaders on Thursday announced their new plan to end the debt nightmare, key to the strategy was halting the “contagion” before it engulfed Italy, the world’s third-largest bond market.

If global investors begin to think that Italy can’t repay its debts the crisis could become a cataclysm.

A key element of the plan is the expansion of Europe’s $600-billion rescue fund for member states and banks. The focus is on boosting the firepower of the fund -- known as the European Financial Stability Facility -- to $1.4 trillion by leveraging it.

The fund is expected to eventually issue guarantees on bonds issued by deeply indebted countries, particularly Italy. The goal: bring down interest rates on those securities to levels the countries can afford by making investors more confident about buying them.

But the continuing rise in Italian bond yields shows that many investors and traders doubt the plan will work -- or they believe the Europeans will drag their feet on implementing it. Although the broad framework of the rescue was announced on Thursday, many of the details were still to be filled in.

Meanwhile, Italy’s political crisis is deepening, as calls mount for embattled Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to resign. Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, chairman of sports car maker Ferrari, wrote in a letter to the newspaper La Repubblica that Italy needed a new government to take much bolder action to rein-in spending and revive the economy.

"There is not a minute to lose. The savings of Italian people, social cohesion and Italy's membership of the euro are all at risk,” he said.

-- Tom Petruno

Photo: Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Credit: Remo Casilli / Reuters

 

MF Global goes bankrupt, is 1st U.S. casualty of European crisis

Getprev

The Wall Street firm run by former Goldman Sachs Chairman and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine filed for bankruptcy Monday morning, making it the first big American casualty of the European debt crisis.

The firm, MF Global, had come under increasing strain in recent weeks due to $6.3 billion in outstanding bets on the sovereign debt of some of Europe's most troubled economies, including Spain and Italy.

Last week the European Union announced a plan to help prop up the economies of its weaker members, but the plan will not insulate financial institutions like MF Global from losses on holdings of European sovereign debt. In early October a large Belgian bank was rescued from bankruptcy after sustaining big losses on such holdings.

In an echo of the demise of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008, questions about MF Global's bad bets led investors to grow afraid of trading or transacting with the firm, sending the stock price down, scaring off investors further. Just last week the company's stock fell 67%.

The company spent the weekend looking for potential buyers, according to the Wall Street Journal, but those efforts appear to have fallen apart.

The bankruptcy filing in Manhattan court represents a remarkable reversal of fortune for Corzine, who stepped down during his first term as U.S. senator to become the governor of New Jersey in 2006.

Corzine took over MF Global after losing to Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor's race in 2010. MF Global was seen as a small assignment for a man who had once run Goldman, the most vaunted name on Wall Street. But at the time Corzine promised to turn MF Global into a Wall Street juggernaut by using Goldman's strategy of making big bets with the firm's own money.

That strategy now appears to have backfired, increasing MF Global's risks with little payoff. Just last week MF Global announced that it had lost $192 million in the third quarter.

RELATED:

No quick solution to Europe's debt crisis

France, Belgium rush to aid of ailing Dexia

Europe leaders announce steps to deal with debt crisis

--Nathaniel Popper

Photo: File photo of MF Global CEO Jon Corzine.Credit: AP Photo / Rich Schultz

Italy, Europe, and Red Brigade terror



Matters are turning serious.


Italy’s labour minister Maurizio Sacconi has just warned that a rushed shake-up of the labour market – as demanded by the EU – risks setting off a fresh cycle of terrorism in the country.


Here is the story from Il Sole.


“We must stop creating tension over labour reform which could lead to a new wave of attacks. I am not afraid for myself because I have (armed) protection. I am afraid for the people who are not protected and could become a target of political violence that is not extinct in our country,” he said.


This is not exaggeration. The Red Brigades-PCC assassinated Massimo D’Antonna in 1999 and Professor Marco Biagio in 2002 for spear-heading labour reforms.


Opposition leader Pier Luigi Bersani praised Mr Sacconi for speaking out at last. “We are in deep trouble. If we ignite the powder-keg of social discord instead of cohesion we will do dramatic damage to the country.”


The EU has woven itself into this drama by presenting Italy with an ultimatum last week, giving the country barely 48 hours to commit to very specific and radical reforms. It is in effect taking sides in an intensely polarized debate within Italy. It is intruding in the most sensitive matters of how society organizes itself, in effect demanding ideological changes – in this case in favour of employers, and against unions – as a condition for further action to shore up Italy’s bond markets.


"We have three deaths in front of us: democracy, politics, and the Left," said Fausto Bertinotti, the elder statesman of Rifondazione Communista and one of Italy's great post-war figures.


"We are living in a neo-Bonapartist financial system. Not a single decision has been taken by the Italian parliament since the end of August except those imposed by the foreign power that now us under administration."


The two bones of contention are Article 18 protecting workers from being sacked for economic reasons, and “firm level agreements” that undercut the power of trade unions to craft deals across sectors.


Those of us in Anglo-Saxon cultures may find it remarkable that Italy still has laws that make it extremely hard for companies to lay off workers when needed. It is clearly a reason why the country has struggled to adapt to the challenge of China, rising Asia, and Eastern Europe.


But that is not the point.


Are such changes to be decided by Italy’s elected parliament by proper process, or be pushed through by foreign dictate when the country is on its knees? “Political ownership” is of critical importance. The EU is crossing lines everywhere, forgetting that it remains no more than a treaty organization of sovereign states. Democratic accountability is breaking down.


This is dangerous. It is only a question of time before the EU itself becomes the target of terrorist attacks in a string of countries, and then what? Will the Project start to demand coercive powers? Will it acquire them?


Eurosceptics have been vindicated. They warned from the start that EMU was a dysfunctional under-taking and that in order to stop it leading to calamitous failure, there would have to be ever deeper intrusions into the affairs of each state and society.


This is now happening at a galloping pace. We really will end up an authoritarian supra-national octopus if this goes on much longer.



The Depreciation of Care at Home

Nancy Folbre is an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

At the next birthday party for your grandparents or yourselves, consider what the following public policies all have in common:

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

Medicare pays for many expensive medical procedures that don’t significantly prolong life, but does not cover the costs of custodial care for patients with diseases that can’t be medically treated, such as Alzheimer’s or dementia.

Perspectives from expert contributors.

Medicaid is far more likely to pay for nursing home care for the indigent elderly than to pay for home- and community-based services that would enable them to remain in their own homes. While some states do far better than others in this regard, at least 25 states and the District of Columbia cut spending on such services between 2007 and 2010.

Plans to offer families affordable long-term care insurance — whose benefits would include stipends for family members providing care — were recently dropped from President Obama’s health care plan.

Paid workers who care for individuals needing assistance in their own homes are not guaranteed a federal minimum wage or overtime protections because they are not covered by the Fair Labor Standards Act.

All these policies take for granted family care, and forms of paid work that resemble family care, assuming that they don’t merit public support or regulation. Yet the aging of the population means that the demand for home-care services is growing even as the supply of young people shrinks.

Marital instability, geographic mobility, increased childlessness and the demands of paid employment all reduce the likelihood that family members will be able to fully meet care needs.

Women, who made up about 67 percent of all caregivers for adults at last count, may become increasingly unlikely to take on responsibilities that their brothers and husbands resist sharing. They may also prove reluctant to enter an occupation that is underpaid and not subject to federal labor regulation.

Paid home and community-based services tend to be more cost-effective than nursing homes, partly because they can help organize and enable support from family members and friends. There is little evidence that they “crowd out” family care; on the contrary, families tend to use paid help when care needs exceed their own capacity, supplementing the total hours of care provided without reducing their own efforts.

Paid home-care workers take on a variety of tasks, including preparing meals, feeding, bathing, doing laundry, changing sheets, ensuring pills are taken and providing reassurance and companionship.

But an outmoded administrative rule excludes them from coverage under the Fair Labor Standards Act on the grounds that they are “merely” providing companionship.

Pressure on both family and public budgets intensifies resistance to changing this rule, for fear of increased costs. But the small number of home-care workers who are providing companionship and nothing more could be excluded.

Modest overall cost increases would be countervailed by reductions in turnover and improvements in care quality. Overtime restrictions would provide incentives to hire new workers and reduce unemployment. Many states are already on board (21 mandate a minimum wage, and 15 require overtime payment).

Current and future family caregivers should favor better federal protections for paid home care workers out of respect for the value and dignity of caregiving itself.

President Obama, who recently suggested a number of administrative rule changes in other policy areas, should urge Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis to extend coverage of the Fair Labor Standards Act.

And everyone who hopes to grow old should demand more support for caregiving at home.

Fast cars and loose fiscal morals: there are more Porsches in Greece than taxpayers declaring 50,000 euro incomes


The Porsche Cayenne: more common in Greece than taxpayers

The Porsche Cayenne: more common in Greece than people who admit earning €50,000


Jubilation about the German deal to save the euro could prove short-lived if fresh news of Greek tax evasion gains wider currency. There are more Porsche Cayennes registered in Greece than taxpayers declaring an income of 50,000 euros (£43,800) or more, according to research by Professor Herakles Polemarchakis, former head of the Greek prime minister’s economic department.


While German car workers may take pride in this evidence of their export success, German taxpayers may be less keen to bail out a nation whose population appears to take such a cavalier approach to paying its fiscal dues. Never mind all that macroeconomic talk about deficit distress, many Greeks are still plainly riding high on the hog.


Something can’t be right when the modest city of Larisa, capital of the agricultural region of Thessaly with 250,000 inhabitants, has more Porsches per head of the population than New York or London.


Perhaps the penny – or the euro – is already dropping, because Professor Polemarchakis writes that Larissa “is the talk of the town in Stuttgart, the cradle of the German automobile industry, and, particularly, in the Porsche headquarters there”, since it “tops the list, world-wide, for the per-capita ownership of Porsche Cayennes”.


“The proliferation of Cayennes is a curiosity, given that farming is not a flourishing sector in Greece, where agricultural output generates a mere 3.2pc of Gross National Product (GNP) in 2009 – down from 6.65pc in 2000 – and transfers and subsidies from the European Commission provide roughly half of the nation’s agricultural income.


“A couple of years ago, there were more Cayennes circulating in Greece than individuals who declared and paid taxes on an annual income of more than 50,000 euros.”


Hard to believe? Don’t take my word for it. The report in Athens News will add to fears, expressed by leading economist George Soros and others, that last week’s deal to save the euro can only buy a little time – not a permanent solution. China may also question why it should support economies that pay their unemployed more than most of its workers earn.


Binding such widely differing cultures as Greece and Germany together was always going to be a problem; not least because of diverging attitudes to such financial fundamentals as work and tax. Now, ahead of this week’s G20 Summit in Cannes, some euro-enthusiast must be sent to the cradle of culture to explain that deficits will balloon unless all taxpayers pay their fiscal dues. I nominate Vince Cable.



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