Monday, August 22, 2011

Toys R Us to open 21 new stores this year

Toys r us

Toys R Us will open 21 new stores this year, including five in California, and will renovate 23 existing locations.

The new stores and 23 renovated locations will house Toys R Us and Babies R Us shops under one roof. Since 2006, the company has been working to bring an integrated format to its stores.

The five new California locations will be in Buena Park, Fremont, Indio, Puente Hills and West Covina. The Puente Hills and West Covina locations have already opened.

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 Photo: A Toys R Us store in Glendale. Credit: Axel Koester / For The Times

Bad weather raises concern over future food prices

Corn Field Drought 
Corn futures rose Monday amid speculation that the recent rains in the Midwest won't be enough to ease drought conditions and boost farmers' yields.

Indeed, it has been a brutal year weather-wise for much of the country, particularly for the Midwest and Texas. In the spring there were floods, which made it difficult for farmers to get their crops planted in the ground.

This summer, heat waves have damaged crop fields, and intense droughts in Texas and Oklahoma have resulted in cattle dying and ranchers rushing to sell their animals, even if they took a loss. The extreme weather has raised concerns that a smaller-than-expected supply of corn, soybeans and other core commodity crops might ripple out and keep consumer food prices high in the coming months.

Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for this year’s harvest and predicted that grain inventories, though still hitting record highs, would come in lower than previously expected. Among its estimates: Corn was forecast to hit 12.9 billion bushels, down from previous forecasts of 13.5 billion bushels.

Corn futures in Chicago rose 9 cents on Monday, closing at $7.20 a bushel for a September delivery. The price has jumped 21% from $5.96 a bushel on July 1, and is nearing the three-year high of $7.85 reached on June 9.

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Photo: A corn crop failed to mature in a Texas field this July. A severe drought has caused most non-irrigated crops in the area to fail and forced farmers to abandon some fields to conserve their limited resources. Credit: Scott Olson / Getty Images

Goldman Sachs confirms its CEO hired criminal defense attorney

Blankfein Goldman Sachs is responding to a Reuters report that its chief executive, Lloyd Blankfein, has hired a criminal defense attorney.

Here's what a spokesman for the firm said in a statement:

"As is common in such situations, Mr. Blankfein and other individuals who were expected to be interviewed in connection with the Justice Department’s inquiry into certain matters raised in the PSI report hired counsel at the outset."

The PSI is the Senate subcommittee that investigated wrongdoing during the financial crisis and pointed a finger at Goldman.

Goldman shares plunged in the final minutes of trading, after the initial report on Reuters. The stock ended down $5.25, or 4.7%, at $106.51, its lowest close since March 2009.

-- Nathaniel Popper

Photo: Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington in 2009. Credit: Haraz N. Ghanbari / AP Photo

Central California man accused of defrauding real estate investors

Federal prosecutors in Los Angeles have charged a Central California man with fraud and money laundering for allegedly defrauding investors in three real estate development projects.

James Hurst Miller Jr., 63, former president of Atascadero-based Hurst Financial Corp., was accused of misappropriating money from investors who backed development projects in Paso Robles and Templeton.

Prosecutors allege that Miller used investor money to make interest payments to early investors and on other projects in which they had not agreed to invest.

Investors lost millions of dollars in the fraud but prosecutors have not yet determined a specific loss, said Thom Mrozek, spokesman for the U.S. attorney’s office in Los Angeles.

If convicted of all charges, Miller could face up to 80 years in federal prison.

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Oil prices volatile while world waits for Libya

Oil prices were roiling Monday as Libyan rebels made further progress toward ousting leader Moammar Kadafi, raising hopes that the country’s conflict is drawing to a close at a time of global economic uncertainty.

Analysts said that the overthrow of Kadafi would increase chances that Libya will resume oil exports, which had ground to a halt during the six-month conflict. That could lead to some easing of gasoline and diesel prices.

Brent crude, which is used to price many international oil varieties, dropped $0.26 to $108.36 a barrel for October on the ICE Futures Exchange in London. However, crude oil futures were up $1.86 to $84.12 a barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling as low as $81.13 earlier in the day.

“This Libyan situation comes in the backdrop of uncertainty with the U.S. and European economy, which is also impacting the price of oil,” said Phil Flynn, an oil analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago. “This is why we’re seeing so much volatility, because there is so much uncertainty.”

The AAA Fuel Gauge reported that gas averaged $3.57 a gallon nationwide and $3.73 a gallon in California.

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service in New Jersey, said that many traders in the oil market were “jumping the gun” by optimistically guessing that Kadafi’s overthrow would lead immediately to an bump in the global oil supply.

“Libya was the No. 1 reason keeping U.S. gas prices stubbornly high this summer,” Kloza said. “But it struck me that people are assuming Kadafi would be overthrown and Jimmy Carter would take over.

“The reality is that you need utilities and everything that comes with a workable government to get things reinstated. You don’t have a national oil company there anymore. You need pipes and ports restored. You need oil companies partnering with Libyan entities to come back, and they need to know it'll be safe.”

Flynn said that about 50% to 75% of Libya's production may resume within a few months. But analysts cautioned that the oil exports ramping back up to pre-conflict levels are unlikely anytime soon.

“But we have probably seen our high for the year" on gasoline, Flynn said. “I think we won’t hit $4 again.”

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Selling by baby boomers could depress stocks for years

WallSt2-GettyImages

As if investors don’t have enough to worry about these days, a new study says that selling by baby boomers in coming years could be a persistent wet blanket on the stock market.

The report by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco predicts that stock prices could fall 13% over the next decade solely because of baby boomers dumping stocks to branch into more conservative investments as they retire.

It could take an additional six years, until 2027, for share prices to return to the level they reached last year, according to the analysis by researchers Zheng Liu and Mark M. Spiegel.

In the typically understated language of a government report, the researchers describe this scenario as “quite bearish.”

The report’s basic premise is that stock prices “have been closely related to demographic trends in the past half century" -- in other words, that baby boomers pushed up stock prices in earlier years as they hit their prime earning and saving years.

This isn’t a new hypothesis -– and some analysts have disputed it in the past –- but the timing of the report is unsettlng in itself given that the market has slumped again.

Indeed, aside from being a longer-term depressant, selling by baby boomers -– the post-War contingent born between 1946 and 1964 –- could forestall any current-day recovery in the market from the global financial crisis.

“It is disconcerting that the retirement of the baby-boom generation, which has long been expected to place downward pressure on U.S. equity values, is beginning in earnest just as the stock market is recovering from the recent financial crisis, potentially slowing down the pace of that recovery,” the report says.

The only encouraging tidbit –- if it could be called that -– is that stock values could rise solidly in later years as the boomer generation ages. Stock prices should begin rising strongly starting in 2025, and by 2030 should be about 20% higher than in 2010, according to the report.

Good news -– provided, of course, that you can wait that long.

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U.S. workers will get modest raises in 2012, report finds

Dollar Salaried workers likely will get a 2.8% pay bump next year, according to a report Monday.

In a survey of 773 U.S. companies, human resources consultancy Towers Watson found that raises will stay moderate until the economy finds solid footing. The report found that companies expect to give a similar percentage raise to executives and nonexempt employees in 2012.

Merit will play a key role in how much managers decide to dole out -- whether to reward good behavior or to prevent valuable employees from jumping to competitors.

Workers with the highest performance ratings will earn median salary increases of 4.5% -- 80% more than their colleagues with average ratings, the study found.

Earlier this month, Towers Watson said that “potentially violent and difficult-to-predict market moves are likely for a number of years.” Despite the sense of unease, companies said they will still fully fund annual bonuses for staff, according to a separate report from the consultancy.

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Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

The Happiest States of America: North Dakota on the Rise

North Dakota is not only the most employment-rich state in the country. It’s also on its way to becoming the happiest.

According to the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, based on a daily survey of Americans that tries to measure the elements of “the good life,” North Dakota is the second happiest state, behind Hawaii. (Hawaii has been the happiest state for a while now.) North Dakota has been in the Top 10 list for the last couple of years, but has been steadily climbing its way upward.

North Dakota’s Well-Being Index score has also moved up proportionally more than any other state in the last year.

CATHERINE RAMPELL
CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

The index is based on an average of six component indices, which reflect Americans’ answers to questions about how they evaluate their lives; their emotional health; how they feel about their work environment; their physical health; the kinds of healthy behaviors they do (or don’t) engage in; and how much access they have to basic necessities. Perhaps not surprisingly, given the state’s fleet-footed job growth, North Dakota’s score benefited most from respondents’ views of their work environment.

Dollars to doughnuts.

Poor West Virginia once again claimed the lowest rank in the latest Well-Being Index report, a spot where it has languished for several years. In general, Southern and Rust Belt states rank lowest on this index, while the Plains states and Pacific states rank best, as shown in the interactive map above.

The latest scores are based on daily polls conducted from January through June 2011, in which more than 177,000 American adults were surveyed.

Ford and Toyota to team on hybrid system for trucks and SUVs

Ford

 

The companies have worked independently on rear-wheel drive hybrid systems. This new hybrid powertrain will bring greater fuel efficiency to new trucks and sport utility vehicles without compromising the capability drivers require in their vehicles, Ford said.

Ford and Toyota said they believed their collaboration would allow them to bring these hybrid technologies to customers sooner and more affordably than either company could alone.

“This agreement brings together the capability of two global leaders in hybrid vehicles and hybrid technology to develop a better solution more quickly and affordably for our customers,” said Derrick Kuzak, Ford group vice president of Global Product Development. “Ford achieved a breakthrough with the Ford Fusion Hybrid, and we intend to do this again for a new group of truck and SUV buyers -- customers we know very well.”

The hyrbid drivetrains will help both companies meet increasingly stringent federal fuel economy rules.

The automakers also said they will work together to develop telematics platform standards. Improving telematics, such as Ford's Sync system, will reduce driver distraction and bring more Internet-based services and useful information to consumers globally, Ford said.

The companies will also look at issues concerning cell phone connectivity and internet communications security in vehicles.

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Photo: Line worker assembles a 2012 Ford Focus at the Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, Mich. Credit: Associated Press

 

Stocks rise in anticipation of Federal Reserve meeting

Stock markets reversed course again and headed up as investors looked forward to a Federal Reserve meeting later this week at which a new stimulus plan could be announced.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 136 points, or 1.3%, to 10953.84 in early trading. The rise came after last week ended with two down days.

The Federal Reserve is set to hold its annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo. on Friday. Last year at the meeting, the central bank's chairman, Ben Bernanke, announced the so-called QE2 program, which injected money into the economy through bond buying. With the global economy showing increasing signs of slowing down in recent weeks, expectations are growing that Bernanke will use this year's conference to announce a new stimulus program.

Stocks were also helped by the apparent victory of rebels in Libya, which helped to send down the price of oil.

Stock indexes were recently up 1.8% in France and 1.6% in England.

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Delinquent loans on the rise again, a grim sign for housing

Home4salejuly2011illinoisAPSethPerlman 
It's an ominous sign for housing. The percentage of homeowners who have missed at least one mortgage payment has risen for the second straight quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. says.

Officials at the trade group expressed concern Monday that the sluggish economy may be creating another group of distressed borrowers.

"It is clear that the downward trend we saw through most of 2010 has stopped," the Mortgage Bankers Assn.'s chief economist, Jay Brinkmann, said in a news release.

The second-quarter delinquency rate for loans on one- to four-unit residential properties increased to 8.44% of all U.S. mortgages as of June 30, up from 8.32% on March 31 and 8.25% on Dec 31.

But not all the news was bad, the trade group said Monday in its quarterly release on soured loans. Long-term delinquencies -- those with three or more missed payments -- were still declining.

And the percentage of homes on which foreclosure proceedings began during the quarter was 0.96%, which is down slightly from the levels seen during the first quarter of this year and the final quarter of 2010.

Still, "mortgage delinquencies are no longer improving, and are now showing some signs of worsening."

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Photo: Home for sale in Springfield, Ill. Credit: Associated Press / Seth Perlman

A Sales Tax on Wall Street Transactions

Nancy Folbre is an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Most of us pay state and local sales taxes on most things we buy, and most casino gambling is subject to state taxes ranging from up to 6.75 percent in Nevada to 55 percent on slot machines in Pennsylvania.

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

But speculative purchases of stocks, bonds and other financial instruments in the United States go untaxed but for a tiny fee (less than a half-cent) on stock trades that helps finance the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Perspectives from expert contributors.

In Britain, by contrast, a 0.5 percent tax on stock transactions raises about $40 billion a year. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany recently announced plans to introduce a similar tax in the 27 nations of the European Community.

It is variously called a “transactions tax,” a “financial transactions tax,” a “security transaction excise tax” or a Tobin tax (after the Nobel Prize-winning economist James Tobin, who famously argued for its application to foreign exchange purchases in the late 1970s).

By any name, Wall Street hates it, because it would cut into trading profits. But proponents like Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research assert that it would primarily affect short-term “noise traders” and discourage speculation rather than productive investment.

Less speculation could lead to less volatility in prices, encouraging long-term investors.

Further, a sales tax on Wall Street of 0.5 percent could raise up to $175 billion in tax revenue a year, even if, by discouraging frequent trades, it cuts the total number of transactions in half.

A small financial transaction tax proposed by Representative Peter DiFazio, Democrat of Oregon, and supported by Senator Tom Harkin, Democrat of Iowa, the Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act (with specific details of a co-sponsored bill still being negotiated) is likely to raise less revenue.

Plenty of highly respected economists support the basic concept, and plenty disagree. In a recent review of the literature, Neil McCulloch and Grazia Pacillo of the Institute of Development Studies in Britain conclude that it is unlikely to reduce speculation but nonetheless represents a relatively good source of tax revenue. A recent report by Thornton Matheson, published by the International Monetary Fund, expresses negative views.

An engaging summary of the pros and cons can be found in a videotaped debate sponsored by the Center for the Study of Responsive Law on July 8 as part of its “Debating Taboos” series.

My University of Massachusetts colleague Robert Pollin argues in favor, while James Angel of Georgetown argues against.

Professor Angel insists that short-term traders are not primarily speculators and describes them as a healthy part of the financial ecosystem that might be killed off. Professor Pollin’s view, with which I agree, is that short-term trading has increased enormously in recent years, with no positive impacts on economic efficiency. In any case, I don’t think a 0.5 percent tax on transactions will cause serious fatalities.

Professor Angel also points out that a tax on financial transactions will be passed on, at least in part, to all investors, with negative consequences for retirement savings. But all taxes are passed on, at least in part, to consumers. I agree with Professor Pollin when he argues that the effect of a financial transactions tax on most people would be very small compared with other sales taxes.

Economists point out that sales taxes discourage consumption, which is better than discouraging investments that can pay off in the future. But many consumption decisions that ordinary people make have important consequences for future productivity.

As Professor Pollin points out, current sales taxes bite those who buy materials to increase energy conservation in their homes or purchase a more fuel-efficient car.

My own research emphasizes that parental expenditures on children, as well as public spending on health and education, represent a form of investment in human capital.

Most state and local sales taxes are very regressive, with low-income families paying more as a percentage of their income. A proposed national sales tax, or a value-added tax, would have an even more negative impact on families at the bottom.

Our current tax policies favor speculative investment in financial instruments over productive investments in human capabilities. This imbalance helps explain why nurses’ unions in the United States have been particularly outspoken advocates of a financial transactions tax.

As they put it: “Heal America. Tax Wall Street.”

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