Friday, November 11, 2011

Podcast: Europe, Pensions, Wealth and Phone Bills

For much of the past week, financial markets have fretted more about Italy than about Greece, which had been the main focus of worries for many weeks.

While the markets were calmer on Friday, the problems in the euro zone were hardly over.

In the new Weekend Business podcast, Floyd Norris, a veteran financial reporter, says that Italy’s sheer economic weight makes its problems quite threatening to the world’s financial system. An impending change in political leadership in Italy and a shift that has already occurred in Greece took some of the financial pressure off both countries temporarily. But the stability of the euro zone remains very much in doubt, he says.

In the United States, a Congressional “supercommittee” has been charged with reducing the fiscal deficit by $1.2 trillion. In a separate conversation in the podcast, and in her column in Sunday Business, Gretchen Morgenson says the committee might want to focus on the taxpayer financing of military contractor pensions, which, she says, are underfunded by some $30 billion. Since defined-benefit pensions have been reduced in other sectors, she suggests, it may be worth considering whether taxpayers ought to bear this burden for defense contractors.

Questions posed by the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations are the focus of the Economic View column in Sunday Business by Tyler Cowen, a George Mason economics professor, who says he has a libertarian and conservative perspective. While he says in the podcast that he’s sympathetic to the demonstrators’ targeting of abuses by the “top 1 percent,” he adds that the crucial distinction ought to be how you earn your money, not how much money you earn. The pursuit of wealth has long been valued in American society, he says, along with a culture of discipline and hard work, and in his view these values ought to be strengthened in the future.

Outrageous cellphone bills have raised the hackles of the Haggler, as David Segal calls himself in his Sunday Business column. On the podcast, he discusses his efforts to adjudicate a bill that amounted to more than $25,000 in long-distance charges plus more than $1,000 in recovery fees.

And Phyllis Korkki and Amy Cortese discuss the response of people in Saranac Lake, a small town in upstate New York, who realized that with the demise of a local store there would no longer be anyplace in town to buy underwear. They started a community-owned store, which sells assorted sundries, with the support of some local shopkeepers, who say that a variety of enterprises are needed to build customer traffic and keep the town’s businesses alive.

You can find specific segments of the podcast at these junctures: Floyd Norris on European debt (34:20); news headlines (25:37); Gretchen Morgenson on pensions (23:22); Amy Cortese on Saranac Lake (18:46); The Haggler on phone bills (13:14); Tyler Cowen on wealth (8:44); the week ahead (1:41).

As articles discussed in the podcast are published during the weekend, links will be added to this post.

You can download the program by subscribing from The New York Times’s podcast page or directly from iTunes.

Walmart.com tests two pop-up stores in California

Wal-Mart

Discount giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is going mini for the holiday season.

The world's biggest retailer has opened two temporary Walmart.com shops in Southern California aimed at steering shoppers to its website.

Known as pop-up stores, the locations will display a curated assortment of toys and electronics. Shoppers can browse the items, then order them directly from Wal-Mart's website on laptops and tablet computers provided on tables at each store.

"The goal was to give our local customers easier access to the range of products on Walmart.com," spokesman Lorenzo Lopez said. "It's not uncommon for us to test different formats and different offerings in different markets just to learn how customers respond."

One store, located in Canoga Park at the Westfield Topanga mall, is about 1,000 square feet; the other is in downtown San Diego and measures 3,000 square feet. They're a fraction of the size of Wal-Mart Express stores (which average 15,000 square feet) or the behemoth Wal-Mart Supercenters (180,000 square feet).

Although some items such as headphones and 3-D glasses can be purchased on the spot, the tiny formats mean many products are for display only, Lopez said.

Lopez said the goal was to offer a "continuous experience" to customers, integrating the online and offline shopping processes. Customers who order products at Walmart.com can opt for home delivery or for pickup later at a local Wal-Mart store.

The company does not plan to open additional pop-up stores this season, Lopez said. The two stores are scheduled to close at the end of December.

"The emphasis for us is to offer the new format and see how customers react," he said.

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-- Shan Li

Photo: The Wal-Mart logo displayed in Springfield, Ill. Credit: Seth Perlman / Associated Press

California ratepayer advocate complains of high solar power costs

Mirrors in mojavepbspic

California consumers will be paying too much for electricity generated by a large solar-thermal power plant being built in the Mojave Desert, the state's independent ratepayer watchdog agency said.

The Division of Ratepayer Advocates questioned the California Public Utility Commission's 4-1 vote Thursday to approve the Mojave Solar Project's 25-year power contract with Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

"The commission has the power to keep the cost of renewable energy reasonable," said the division's acting director, Joe Como. The commission, he said, "is signaling to the market that California will accept overpriced renewable energy and that it is willing to lock customers into higher rates for decades to come."

In a statement, the PUC confirmed that the contract "is more costly than other procurement opportunities available to PG&E," but said it "determined that the value of adding the Mojave Solar Project to California's fleet of renewable energy generation capacity warranted approving the project."

The contract had to be renegotiated higher because of an expected delay in upgrading the transmission network, the PUC said.

 PUC Commissioner Mark J. Ferron said he has "high confidence" that the Mojave plant will get built.

"The technology is tried and true, the financing is all wrapped up with the U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee," he said, "and we're told that the hard hats are on and the bulldozers are ready to roll."

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U.S. launches probe into China solar panels

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Obama administration announces desert solar energy zones

-- Marc Lifsher

Photo: Mirrors concentrate solar power at Mojave Desert power plant. Credit: PBS

Good news in Europe drives stocks higher

NYSE1-Reuters

The stock market ping-pong ball bounced up as investors cheered new moves by debt-hobbled European nations to tackle their fiscal woes.

The passage of an austerity budget in Italy and further steps toward a unity government in Greece comforted investors who earlier in the week had feared the potential collapse of the continent’s currency union.

Better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence numbers also stirred optimism that the domestic economy is faring reasonably well in the face of Europe’s troubles.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 259.89 points, or 2.2%, to 12,153.68, its fourth gain in the last five days. The rally pushed the Dow to a modest 1.4% advance for the week.

But the sole down day was a big one -– the Dow tumbled nearly 400 points Wednesday on concern that Europe’s debt crisis would consume Italy -– and the market overall continued the volatile up-and-down trading pattern that has gripped it the last three months.

Each sign of progress in Europe sparks powerful rallies in the market, but bad news stirs equally abrupt sell-offs.

“I’ve never seen the markets in such a state, where they are so one-sided and flip-flop from day to day,” said A.C. Moore, chief investment strategist for Dunvegan Associates Inc. in Santa Barbara. “It’s really quite a phenomenon.”

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Italian bond yields dive, but fear still dogs Eurozone debt markets

Time to turn outrage over bank fees toward entire financial industry

Italian bond yields fall, but French yields soar on S&P 'error'

-- Walter Hamilton

Photo credit: Reuters

Family Dollar to open first California stores

Getprev
The buck stops here? Family Dollar will open four stores in California Thursday -- their first foray ever into the Golden State.

The shops -- located in Fontana, Riverside, Ontario and Rialto -- mark the first step in a major push into California by the North Carolina company, which plans to open up to 50 new locations in the state by next fall.

"California has been on our radar for a few years, and we finally thought it was the right time given economic conditions," said company spokesman Josh Braverman.

Like other dollar chains, Family Dollar has benefited during the economic downturn as its core customers -- who earn $40,000 or less a year -- tried to stretch their dollars, Braverman said. Middle-income shoppers nervous about the economy have also provided a boost. "Those earning $40,000 to $80,000 a year. These customers may feel like like, 'Where is that double-dip recession, when is that other shoe going to drop?' " Braverman said. "They realize they can come in and save a couple of bucks."

The chain, which operates about 7,000 stores around the country, will first focus on Southern California before venturing north, Braverman said. Each location will hire about 10 employees from the local community.

Family Dollar will face competition from 99 Cents Only Stores Inc., a City of Commerce chain that  recently agreed to be acquired by a Los Angeles private equity firm and the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board.

But Braverman said there was room enough in California for both chains.

"Competition is not new to us," he said. "We have been able to carve out a niche for ourselves."

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-- Shan Li

Photo: Carolyn Henry Glaspy stocks shelves at a Family Dollar store in Cincinnati. Credit: Michael E. Keating / Associated Press


Safety regulators open probe of electric vehicles after Volt fire

Fire in Chevrolet Volt sparks federal safety probe. Federal safety officials have launched a probe into whether the batteries in Chevrolet’s Volt plug-in hybrid sedan are prone to fires.

The probe by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration was launched after a Volt caught fire following a crash test.

The Associated Press, which learned of the probe from a federal safety regulator, said the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will be looking at the safety of batteries from several makes of electric vehicles.

The Volt is designed to run purely off its batteries for about 40 miles. When the batteries run low, a gasoline engine kicks in and functions as a generator, powering the electric motors and extending the range of the sedan to more than 300 miles.

Other electric cars currently for sale include the Nissan Leaf and the Tesla Roadster.  Several other automakers, including Toyota, Ford and Mitsubishi plan to launch sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids in the coming months.

General Motors Co., which owns the Chevrolet brands, said the Volt is safe.

“We are working cooperatively with NHTSA as it completes its investigation.  However, NHTSA has stated that based on available data, there’s no greater risk of fire with a Volt than a traditional gasoline-powered car,” said Jim Federico, General Motors chief engineer for electric vehicles.

“Safety protocols for electric vehicles are clearly an industry concern. At GM, we have safety protocols to depower the battery of an electric vehicle after a significant crash,” he said. “We are working with other vehicle manufacturers, first responders, tow truck operators, and salvage associations with the goal of implementing industry-wide protocols.” 

GM shares fell 19 cents, or about 1%, to close at $22.51 on Friday.

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-- Jerry Hirsch
Twitter.com/LATimesJerry

Photo: Chevrolet Volt. Credit: Associated Press.

Italian bond yields dive, but fear still dogs Eurozone debt markets

Italysenate
Battered European markets got some relief Friday, as Italian bond yields tumbled from 14-year highs.

But global markets are just trading from headline to headline, and the Eurozone debt crisis is far from over. Enjoy this while it lasts.

In Italy, the yield on the 10-year government bond dived to 6.45% from 6.89% on Thursday. The yield had reached 7.25% on Wednesday, the highest since 1997, as fears mushroomed about Italy’s creditworthiness.

On Friday the Italian Senate passed an austerity budget, acceding to European Union demands. That should pave the way for embattled Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to resign.

The Italian stock market jumped 3.7% for the day, but remains nearly 7% below its recent high reached Oct. 27. The euro rallied 1.2% to $1.377.

Even though Italian bond yields pulled back, the 10-year yield still ended the day above its level of 6.37% a week ago, and well above the level of 5% in late August.

The next big test for Italy: The government will try to sell about $4 billion of five-year bonds on Monday. The current market yield on that debt maturity: a pricey 6.46%.

In a sign that investors remain suspicious about Eurozone debt in general, yields fell only modestly in other key countries. The Spanish 10-year bond yield slipped to 5.85% from a three-month high of 5.86% on Thursday.

And France -- the core of the Eurozone, with Germany -- remains a source of significant concern, after its bond yields also soared this week.

The yield on 10-year French bonds eased to 3.39% on Friday after jumping to a four-month high of 3.47% on Thursday.

The surge in yields on Thursday was fueled by an apparently erroneous report that Standard & Poor’s had cut France’s AAA credit rating. S&P later said the report was a mistake. Yet the French 10-year yield remains well above its level of 3.05% a week ago.

A continuing rise in French yields could be more dangerous for Europe than the surge in Italian yields, because France and Germany are considered Europe’s strongest economies. Without them, there is no possibility of rescuing the continent’s deeply troubled states.

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Photo: The Italian Senate on Friday, before its vote on austerity measures. Credit: Pier Paolo Cito / Associated Press

U.S. fuel exports hit new record in August

Getprev
U.S. exports of refined fuels, particularly diesel, have surged to fresh all-time highs, helping to keep the prices of gasoline and diesel in this country at record levels for this time of year.

In 2003, U.S. refiners exported a little more than 100,000 barrels of fuel a day, primarily to Central America and South America, the federal Energy Department said. Since then, that figure has soared, reaching 656,000 barrels a day in 2010, marking a seventh straight record year. This year, export volume has moved further into record territory. It averaged 730,000 barrels a day through the first six months of the year.

In August, the latest month for which Energy Department data is available, those exports jumped again, to a record 895,000 barrels a day during one of the busiest months of the summer driving season in the U.S.

Driving the trend is strong global demand for diesel fuel.

"Increases in U.S. distillate exports began as global diesel consumption growth outpaced growth in consumption of other petroleum products over the past decade," the department said in a recent report. "According to the International Energy Agency, from 2000 through 2008 (the last year for which a complete set of global data exists), global diesel consumption increased by 23%."

Where are the exports going? The Netherlands (146,000 barrels a day) is the biggest buyer, followed by Mexico (112,000 barrels), Panama (63,000), Brazil (56,000), Colombia (54,000), France (42,000) and Peru (41,000).

Why are record diesel exports affecting gasoline prices? The Energy Department says surging diesel prices have "provided incentives to refiners to shift some production away from gasoline."

The result: The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. today is $3.438, up 57.4 cents from a year ago, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report. That's also 32.7 cents a gallon higher than the old record for this time of year, set in 2007.

In California, the average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline today is $3.839. That's 70.4 cents a gallon higher than a year ago and 47.3 cents a gallon higher than 2007's record level.

Exports of U.S. refined fuels are only expected to increase, with global demand projected to rise sharply in the coming years.

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— Ronald D. White

Photo: A Conoco-Phillips oil refinery in Wilmington, Del. U.S. exports of refined fuels rose to a fresh record in August. Credit: Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times

Equalizing Payments for Medical Care

Uwe E. Reinhardt is an economics professor at Princeton. He has some financial interests in the health care field.

For some time now, health policy makers around the world and the analysts who advise them have been exploring reforms of the methods by which the providers of health care are paid or, as the latter prefer to call it, are “reimbursed” – an unfortunate, mind-altering expression on which I have already commented in an earlier post.

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

Several papers in the current issue of Health Affairs are devoted to that topic. They include one by me, another by David Miller that addresses large variations in Medicare payments for surgery and one by Peter Hussey about bundled payments for treatments of an entire episode of illness.

Perspectives from expert contributors.

My paper focuses on the fact that every private health insurer in this country pays different physicians, hospitals and other providers of health care different prices for identical services. The flip side of this practice is that a given provider charges different payers – insurers or patients – different prices for identical health service. Economists call that practice “price discrimination.”

Figure 1 below illustrates this phenomenon from the insurer’s perspective for colonoscopies in New Jersey. Figure 2 shows payments in 2007 by one large private insurer for appendectomies (then code DRG 107) and coronary bypass grafts with cardiac catheterization (code CABG, then DRG 107) in California at what are known as “tertiary hospitals” — those with the ability to support medical specialists in medicine, pediatrics, obstetrics and gynecology, surgery, their subspecialties and ancillary services.

While there evidently is pervasive price discrimination within the private health-care sector, there are also sizable price differentials between public payers on the one hand and private payers on the other. Figure 3 illustrates this phenomenon by means of the so-called payment-to-cost ratio paid to hospitals by Medicare, Medicaid and private health insurers. This ratio is calculated as a fraction of the full costs that hospitals report to have incurred for patients covered by these three payers.

We can see that in many years, hospital report that the two public payers have covered the full cost (including presumably allocated fixed-overhead costs) of the care for the patients covered by these programs. Private payers, on the other hand, pay a sizable margin on top of the full costs of treating their covered clients.

Private health insurers and their principals, private employers, deplore this phenomenon as a “cost shift” from public payers to them. Of course, by similar reasoning, private insurers and individual self-paying patients who pay relatively high prices for given services can lament that they are the victims of a cost shift from private insurers with stronger market power vis à vis hospitals, which enables them to bargain for lower prices for identical services.

Many economists do not buy into this contention, asserting that price discrimination can exist without a cost shift. Explaining how economists arrive at that conclusion goes beyond the limit of this post. Interested readers, however, might consult my previously cited paper in Health Affairs, or, if they are not daunted by more formal economic analysis, read Austin Frakt’s critique of the cost-shift theory.

Whether or not one accepts the cost-shift premise, the question arises of whether price discrimination in health care has served the United States well. On this point, the business school professors Michael Porter and Elizabeth Teisberg have this to say in their book “Redefining Health Care”:

This administrative complexity of dealing with multiple prices [for the same service] adds costs with no benefit. The dysfunctional competition that has been created by price discrimination far outweighs any short-term advantages individual system participants gain from it, even for those participants who currently enjoy the biggest discounts. The lesson is simple: skewed incentives motivate activities that push costs higher. All these incentives and distortions reinforce zero-sum competition and work against value creation.

Similarly, in commenting critically in The New England Journal of Medicine on another study of administrative costs of Canadian and American health care, Henry Aaron of the Brookings Institution offered this preamble to his critique:

I look at the U.S. health care system and see an administrative monstrosity, a truly bizarre mélange of thousands of payers with payment systems that differ for no socially beneficial reason, as well as staggeringly complex public systems with mind-boggling administered prices and other rules expressing distinctions that can only be regarded as weird.

Other nations with multiple insurance carriers – for example, Germany and Switzerland – avoid price discrimination in health care through negotiations over prices between regional associations of health insurers and counterpart associations of health care providers, subject to some overall budget constraint informed by macroeconomic conditions (e.g., growth of the payroll on which premiums are based or per capita income). The negotiated prices then apply uniformly to all insurers and all providers in a region (states in Germany and cantons in Switzerland). In the United States, Maryland has operated such an “all payer” system for hospitals for several decades.

An all payer system has the potential to reduce health care costs in several ways, including the discipline of a fee schedule on providers, the schedule to be negotiated with providers on a regional basis, and a reduction in the enormous complexity and high administrative costs of the current system.

If it is desired, an all payer system can also serve as a way to constrain the future growth of health care to some desired path – e.g., with total national health spending growing annually only 0.5 percentage points faster than the growth of the rest of gross the domestic product, rather than the traditional two percentage points faster that prevailed over the last four decades. A two percentage point differential is simply not sustainable.

In my above-cited paper, I advocate an all payer system for the United States to eliminate the pervasive price discrimination inherent in American health care and, to the extent it exists, the much-lamented cost shift. For readers of this blog, Health Affairs has graciously provided access to the paper until Nov. 16. I invite readers to take a look at my argument for an all-payer approach and share with us their reaction to it.

European moves help send stocks up

Wall sign -- stan honda afp getty images
Stock prices rose around the world after Greece and Italy took steps to reform their struggling economies.

The Dow Jones industrial average was recently up 272.46 or 2.3% to 12,166.25, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 2.1%, or 25.83 points to 1265.52, bringing the index again into positive territory for the year.

Leading indexes rose even more sharply across Europe, jumping 3.1% in Germany and 2.7% in France.

Indexes are up for the second consecutive day after a big drop on Wednesday, when fear spread that Italy may be unable to contain its debt crisis. On Friday, Italy's Senate passed an economic reform bill that will cut government spending. Meanwhile, Greece swore in a former central banker as its new prime minister. 

In the United States, a University of Michigan index of consumer confidence rose more than expected from October to November, reaching its highest level in 5 months.

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Europeans grumble as 'Merkozy' decides their fate

Lower yields on Italian bonds help stabilize markets

-- Nathaniel Popper

twitter.com/nathanielpopper

Photo credit: Getty Images / Stan Honda

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