Seasonal Joys in the Jobs Report?

The job numbers on Friday were better than expected, at least if you look at the seasonally adjusted figures. They still were not very good, but any good news is welcome.

FLOYD NORRIS

Notions on high and low finance.

But some of this could be the seasonal factors I wrote about last month in an Off-the-Charts column.

Notions on high and low finance.

Before seasonal adjustments, the Labor Department said the number of jobs fell by 1,231,000. But July is always a weak month, so the department applies seasonal adjustments. If a characteristic of this economy is less turnover, as I think it may be, then the seasonal adjustments may be overstated. Similarly, June may have erred in the other direction.

The July seasonal adjustment relates almost entirely to government jobs. Of course there are fewer of them in the summer. Implicitly, the Labor Department is assuming that all those teachers will be back in September. Let’s hope it is right.