Friday, October 28, 2011

Europe kowtows to the Chinese dragon


Come to this. Few things could be more bizarre, or humiliating, than the sight of eurozone political leaders kowtowing to the Chinese in the hope that a few crumbs might fall from the dragon's table to help prop up the newly enhanced European Financial Stability Facility.


The Chinese threaten to extract a high price; security for their money, open access to European markets and freedom to buy advanced technologies (and there I was thinking they'd already stolen it all). They might also demand, though I have seen no evidence for this in published comments, that Europeans cease all open criticism of Chinese mercantalism, human rights abuse and anything else that tends to concern us over China's ever onwards and upwards rise to superpower status.


A few facts and figures. At $12.2 trillion in 2010, the eurozone's gross domestic product is more than twice as big as that of China and its income per capita is more than four times as high. And yet there's the eurozone's emissory, Klaus Regling, going cap in hand begging for handouts. How can a region be so rich and yet apparently so poor at the time?


It's a paradox which goes to the heart of the problem of global imbalances. What in effect is happening is that the Chinese earn far more than they spend. The consequent surplus in earnings and production is saved and exported. It's a funny old world that has some of the poorest people in the world lending to some of the richest to buy the goods they make but cannot themselves afford to buy, but that's the way it is.


Whatever concessions the Chinese manage to extract from the likes of Nicolas Sarkozy, who's been on the phone to President Hu Jintao, they would be well advised to leave well alone. As the investment guru Jim Rogers said on BBC radio's Today programme, the EFSF is essentially a scam. It might buy a little time, but it cannot solve the eurozone's underlying problems. The bit of it the Europeans want the Chinese to invest in is a "special purpose vehicle" – appropriately known as a SPIV – which is essentially a piece of financial engineering to make the fund bigger than it really is. It's a confidence trick.


It's also a surrogate for what the eurozone should really be doing to add liquidity to distressed peripheral nation bond markets – which is to give the European Central Bank the freedom to act as a central bank is meant to in its lender of last resort capacity and print money to ease the crisis (see this excellent piece by the economist Paul De Grauwe). Only the Germans won't allow it. They'd prefer to dance with the Chinese dragon than do the obvious. At best, they are going to end up badly singed.



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