Jobs Report Preview

On Friday morning, the Labor Department will release its first estimate for the number of jobs created in the United States in August, and right now expectations are low.

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

Wall Street analysts have a median forecast of just a 60,000 net gain in nonfarm payroll jobs, about half of the gain from July. The unemployment rate — which comes from a different survey, and reflects the share of people who want work and are actively looking for it but can’t find a job — is expected to remain 9.1 percent.

Dollars to doughnuts.

To put this in perspective, the United States generally needs to add about 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with the growth in the working-age population.

These are among the factors that economists are citing for their weak forecasts:

Even if the numbers come in just as expected, economists will be scouring the report for any signs of what lies ahead.

Here are some details to keep an eye on:

Weak Stocks, Weak Economy?

Amidst the sell-off on Monday and the calmer waters this morning, here’s a thought from Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at the High Frequency Economics research firm: a weak stock market is not always a sign of a weak economy.

Remember Black Monday, 1987? By that October day, stocks had fallen 36 percent from their peak in August. Yet in 1988, the economy grew by 4.1 percent, even though the market had recovered only half its losses.

Admittedly, aside from the stock market slide, signs are not exactly great right now for the economy. But Mr. Shepherdson is taking heart from the 4.8 percent increase in chain store sales reported by Redbook Research during the first week of August compared with a year earlier.

Consumer confidence reports have been dismal recently, but Mr. Shepherdson points out that when you ask people “‘how do you feel, they say ‘miserable.’ But that doesn’t necessarily mean you don’t go shopping.”

So maybe that’s something to get a few of those traders to take their heads out of their hands.